Bern, babe, Bern. Get this: According to London's Daily Telegraph (and its astute Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, one of the best economics observers out there today...if a bit uber-Kensyian), the not-so-astute Federal Resereve chairman Ben Bernanke is already planning an exit strategy from recession-driven rate cuts. He's worried critics are right and that inflation will pick up when the U.S. economy starts to recover. Doesn't sound like someone expecting this recession to last much longer or turn into a W.
Yield Curve & Interest Rates
01/14/2009
Bernanke sketches Exit Strategy (Daily Telegraph)
Bern, babe, Bern. Get this: According to London's Daily Telegraph (and its astute Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, one of the best economics observers out there today...if a bit uber-Kensyian), the not-so-astute Federal Resereve chairman Ben Bernanke is already planning an exit strategy from recession-driven rate cuts. He's worried critics are right and that inflation will pick up when the U.S. economy starts to recover. Doesn't sound like someone expecting this recession to last much longer or turn into a W.
01/13/2009
Speculators are betting on future Fed rate hikes
If the economy is sinking deeper and faster into recession, why are speculators in the futures markets (the Chicago Board of Trade to be exact) betting on future Fed rate hikes? Fed funds futures prices on the CBOT suggest those putting their own money behind their opinions believe the Fed funds rate will rise from around 0% currently to around 0.5%. Looks like some time in July is when things are expected to really get moving...up
The chart hardly suggests we're in for a robust recovery, it could just mean inflation is headed up (stagflation anyone?) and there is frankly nowhere for the fed funds rate to go but up, but it's yet another development that should make you go hmmm.....
