Is the global economy really recovering? Who knows?
The U.S. recession might not be over yet, according to quarterly GDP estimates. Even if it is over, what comes next seems unlikely to meet any conventional definition of a U.S. recovery or expansion since the financial crisis has "left deep scars" that could affect the economy "for many years to come," as the IMF's chief economist bluntly puts it.
Well founded concerns linger that a broke FDIC, a second round of financial crisis, a U.S. dollar collapse and national bankruptcy may lie around the corner as a government -- not particularly distinguished for its prescience, competence or immunity from short-term pressure -- faces the daunting task of taking a feeble economy off life support before inflation breaks out as the 2010 congressional elections approach.
Still, the U.S. economy has clearly stabilized from its free fall late last year. With the stock market rallying big-time on expectations the worst is behind us (fingers crossed), it's worth taking a look now at whatever industries, regions and countries are currently "leading" us into... well, into wherever it is we're headed.
Below are several Top 10 lists of industries that are so far showing the most improvement or stabilization in factory use rates, revenue growth, profit prospects (judging by P/E ratios) and job growth; states showing the biggest increases in payrolls; and countries that enjoyed the most economic growth in the second quarter.
This could
provide a glimpse into what the next U.S. expansion will look like if
and when it gets taken off of government life support and gets back into
high gear.
Change in Factory Utilization Rates
since January 2009 (in percentage points)
| 1. Artificial and synthetic fibers and filaments | 4.05pp |
| 2. Nonmetallic mineral mining and quarrying | 2.67 |
| 3. Paper | 2.28 |
| 4. Iron and steel products | 2.01 |
| 5. Chemical | 1.31 |
| 6. Food | 0.39 |
| 7. Food, beverage, and tobacco | 0.25 |
| 8. Nondurable manufacturing | -0.09 |
| 9. Oil and gas extraction | -0.15 |
| 10. Beverage and tobacco product | -0.38 |
Quarterly Revenue Growth (year-over-year)
| Multimedia & Graphics Software | 94.58% |
| Mortgage Investment | 64.67 |
| Broadcasting - Radio | 57.42 |
| Wholesale, Other | 54.33 |
| Money Center Banks | 37.70 |
| Investment Brokerage - National | 36.09 |
| Diagnostic Substances | 35.75 |
| Waste Management | 35.53 |
| Education & Training Services | 32.41 |
| Auto Parts Stores | 28.11 |
According to Stock Market P/E ratios (trailing 12 month)
| 1. Medical Appliances & Equipment | 820.80 |
| 2. Computer Based Systems | 360.30 |
| 3. Computer Peripherals | 324.40 |
| 4. REIT - Office | 317.20 |
| 5. Biotechnology | 256.10 |
| 6. Sporting Goods Stores | 198.00 |
| 7. Apparel Stores | 167.60 |
| 8. Meat Products | 124.80 |
| 9. Gold | 86.40 |
| 10.Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits | 79.30 |
Best Job Growth:
Change in payrolls in '000s (Dec. 2008 - July 2009)
| Health Care | 149.8 |
| Federal Government | 62.8 |
| Education | 26 |
| Social assistance | 12.6 |
| Local government | 8.6 |
| Accounting | 6.6 |
| State Education | 5.4 |
| General merchandise stores | 4.5 |
| Assoc. & Organizations (incl. lobbyists) | 3.4 |
| Utilities | 2.1 |
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Top Job Growth By State:
Biggest Percent Change in Payrolls (Dec. 2008 - July 2009)
| D.C. | 1.63 |
| North Dakota | 0.76 |
| Alaska | -0.59 |
| Maryland | -0.65 |
| New York | -0.79 |
| Mississippi | -0.82 |
| Vermont | -1.11 |
| Arkansas | -1.23 |
| Louisiana | -1.24 |
| Virginia | -1.27 |
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Economic Growth
Percent Change in GDP (2nd Quarter)
| China | 1.7 |
| India | 1.6 |
| Korea | 2.3 |
| Slovak Republic | 2.2 |
| Japan | 0.9 |
| France | 0.3 |
| Germany | 0.3 |
| Czech Republic | 0.3 |
| Israel | 0.2 |
| Sweden | 0 |
What's taking shape so far is a recovery (if you can call it that) led by:
- profit or sales growth of exportables (including commodities, perishable goods and high-tech);
- job growth in government and heavily government supported, regulated or influenced industries (health care, money center banks, education, utilities, interest groups and lobbyists);
- job growth in the government-driven megalopolis of D.C./Maryland/Virginia.
- economic growth in Asia and Western Europe, highlighting the importance of exports.
Most of everything else continues to shrink or deteriorate. How far the recovery evolves beyond this remains to be seen.
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