The stock market is down 40% over the past several months and is sinking to new bear-market lows levels not seen in 11 years. There seems to be no end to it. At least a few things are clear: The market has yet to see compelling signs of a recovery and, at best, it has no confidence that government policy in the U.S. or other major economies will arrest the rot. At worst, it reflects the collective view of the market that policy is actually worsening the rot, or expectations that policy will further worsen the rot. Until that sentiment -- and the reality fueling it -- changes, we're not going to have a recovery. Certainly not a very good one. At this point, I don't see this situation changing for the better anytime soon, but I'll post again when we again see early signs that it will.
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